MY take on News. Past Facebook posts. RUSSIA and SOUTH AMERICA.

NEWS. “A World Away From Ukraine, Russia Is Courting Latin America.” And adds: “The Ukraine crisis has revived a struggle over Latin America between the U.S. and Russia, as Vladimir V. Putin seeks greater influence in the region.” Pretty much like Asia, Latin America’s stand on the Ukraine crisis is ambivalent, if not diverse or vague. Yet no Latin/Asian country has shipped or vowed military aid to Kiev, unlike most European nations.

       Meantime, before all these blew up, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov made an indirect threat that Russia could not rule out deploying military forces to its allies Venezuela and Cuba, as he highlighted Moscow’s clout in the Western Hemisphere. Yet even as violence carries on, most of Latin/South America stay generally neutral.

       Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro reiterates that his country is maintaining neutrality in the conflict. “We are not going to take sides. We are going to continue to be neutral and help however possible to find a solution,” he said. Brazil has deep economic ties with Moscow, mostly by way of oil and fertilizer.

       Mr Ryabkov’s dare wasn’t the first time that Kremlin issued a warning. In 2008, during the conflict over Russia-backed separatists in Georgia, Russia first deployed Tu-160 nuclear-capable bombers to Venezuela, later followed by four warships. Russia sent its Tu-160 bombers back to the region again in 2013 as the United States and European Union pressured the country over its support of separatist forces in Ukraine.

       And as President Biden pounds on President Putin some more with a U.S. ban on Russian oil imports on Tuesday (3/8/2022), expect more equally damning response from Kremlin. Peace seems to be losing its mojo. 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇦🇷

DURING Trump’s tenure at White House, Washington was able to regain lost ground in Venezuela without a bloody “regime change” following massive anti-Nicolas Maduro protests in Caracas. But that doesn’t mean the country with a massive oil reserve is all-America. Ideologically, Venezuela is still a Russian advocate. Hugo Chávez and his successor Maduro are Russia’s most reliable allies for projecting force into the region.

       Take note: Russia’s position in Venezuela is arguably among the largest and most strategically significant of its positions in the region. The two key axes of the Moscow/Caracas relationship have been arms sales and oil.

       With respect to arms, from 2006 through the death of Chávez in 2013, Russia sold over $11 billion in arms to Venezuela, including T-72 tanks, BMP-3 and BTR-80 armored vehicles, Su-30 fighters, Mi-17 and Mi-35 helicopters, and other military end items, making Venezuela by far Russia’s largest military partner in the region. The two countries also agreed to establish a rifle factory in Venezuela, although the project has suffered significant delays due to corruption and other problems.

       As the political and fiscal crisis of the Venezuelan regime deepened and its ability to pay its bills diminished, Russia’s military engagement shifted from the purchase of new end items to maintenance, upgrades, training, and other types of support.

       Enter petroleum. Chávez practically let Russia’s oil giants with open arms: Gazprom, TNK, Lukoil, and Surgutneftegas, and later Rosneft. But as the Venezuelan economy collapsed under Maduro, most of Russia’s energy biggies left or lessened investments. 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇦🇷

NICARAGUA has long been one of Russia’s key partners in the region, with the relationship centered on the bond with leader Daniel Ortega and the Sandinista movement (FSLN), which the Soviet Union armed and helped bring to power in 1979.

       Ortega rekindled the relationship when he returned to office in 2007, and his government was the first in the region to diplomatically recognize the Russian-backed territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia when they broke away from the Republic of Georgia in 2008.

       Over the next 14 years, Russian support for the Ortega regime grew from donations of buses and foodstuffs to Mi-17 helicopters, Yak-130 fighter trainers, An-26 medium transport aircraft, TIGR armored cars, T-72 tanks, ZU-23 antiaircraft guns, and an array of older Russian armored vehicles, as well as Mizrah patrol craft and Molina missile boats.

       Russian cooperation also included setting up a downlink facility for the Russian GLONASS satellite system, inaugurated in 2017, and a Russian regional training facility in Managua for the Russian counterdrug organization FSKN. The FSKN facility in Nicaragua offers Russian operatives the opportunity to interact with police officials from across Central America who would not normally send officers to Russia for training. 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇦🇷

CUBA. Russian military engagement with and arms sales to Cuba have been limited since the abrupt cutoff of Russian aid in 1993 following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Nonetheless, Russian firms were still involved in the Cuban petroleum sector, in nickel mining, and in the transportation sector. Russia has sent 1000 minibuses and 50 trains to Cuba, and it sells Lada cars and Kamaz trucks to the island, among other goods.

       Peru. Russia has had a special relationship with the Peruvian military, and particularly its army, since the presidency of Juan Velasco Alvarado (1968-1975), a left-wing general who seized power in a coup d’état. Alvarado followed through with shipment of Soviet arms initially intended for the Chilean government of Salvador Allende. Older generation Peruvian arms included Mi-8, Mi-24, and later Mi-17 helicopters, and T-55 tanks. Peru also purchased Su-22 fighter bombers and Su-25 fixed-wing aircraft from the Soviet Union in the late 1970s and early 1980s, which the country later used against Ecuador during the Cenepa War of 1995.

       Argentina. Russia’s role as a purchaser of Argentine grain and beef has opened a door in the relationship between the two countries, even under right-of-center and military governments. The left wing of the Peronist movement in Argentina, including former President and current Vice President Christina Fernández de Kirchner, has entertained military relations with Russia. Argentina has contemplated buying Russian fighter aircraft in both 2015 and again in 2021, including Mig-29s and Su-30s. Nonetheless, it has yet to consummate a major arms deal. 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇦🇷

OTHERS. Beyond those mentioned, other potential Russian partners in the region are Xiomara Castro in Honduras, Gabriel Boric in Chile, Luis Arce in Bolivia, and if former guerrilla Gustavo Petro wins in Colombia in the nation’s May 2022 elections.

       Chinese money remains as enabling factor in all these, as expected. Russia’s economy, with a gross domestic product of $1.48 trillion, is only a tenth of the size of China’s $14.7 trillion GDP. Moreover, Russia’s economy is far less diversified and more dependent on earnings from oil exports, which are subject to significant fluctuations. Correspondingly, Russia’s ability to provide significant quantities of military hardware or fund other projects on credit to partners in the region for an extended period is limited.

       And so Beijing comes in. Given Vladimir Putin’s resolve, as this point, to prolong his military operations in Ukraine, Xi Jinping stays conveniently here nor there, but that is a classic CCP stance. And we know where Beijing’s allegiance is—although I see China favoring an end to hostilities, Prolonged war means prolonged delay of work.

       Which goes to say, the most credible power that could convince Russia to end its aggression in Ukraine is China. We don’t want this mess to rub off in South America or elsewhere. Bad for business. 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇦🇷

MY take on News. Past Facebook posts.

BURKINA FASO.

NEWS: “After Coup in Burkina Faso, Protesters Turn to Russia for Help.” / “Military Takes Power in West African Nation of Burkina Faso.” Mutinous officers claim that the public was fed up with President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré because of his inability to stop attacks by Islamist militants. And the military organization is fed up as well with France, former colonizer and now supposedly a benefactor, to stop the violence so now they call for Russia’s help.

       Burkina Faso has been severely affected by the rise of Islamist terror in the Sahel since the mid-2010s. Terrorist activity primarily involves religious terrorism conducted by foreign-based organizations, mostly concentrated in the Hauts-Bassins, Boucle du Mouhoun, Nord, Sahel, and Est regions, along the border with Mali and Niger.

       A series of attacks in Ouagadougou in 2016, 2017, and 2018 by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and its affiliates was particularly deadly, garnering international attention. And, of course, Washington’s (re)focus of military focus from Afghanistan and Syria to this region, also in pursuit of Boko Haram northeastern Nigeria, and Al-Shabaab in Somalia.

       While majority of the violence are blamed on terrorism, communal frustration among the 21 million population over the lack of economic development is also a tremendous contributory factor in the strife.

       In its early years, Burkina Faso was subject to instability, droughts, famines and corruption. Various coups have also taken place: 1966, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1987, an attempt in 1989, 2015, and this year.

       But why seek Russian intervention? Turned out, the two countries have history of cordial relations. However, Vladimir Putin is obviously very busy with Ukraine to pay attention beyond, for now. 🇧🇫☮️🇧🇫

NOT entirely unexpected that Ouagadougou calls out for Moscow’s help in these times of trouble. Diplomatic relations between Burkina Faso and the Soviet Union were established in 1967. And then after the breakup of the USSR, Burkina Faso recognized Russia as the Soviets’ successor.

       However, despite token economic exchange as well as cultural interface by way of Russia’s offer of educational opportunities in Moscow for Burkina Faso students, Ouagadougou’s top trading partners are not the Kremlin. Burkina Faso’s main business ally is its neighbor Cote d'Ivoire, followed by China (surprise!) Ghana, France, and India.

       In recent years, Burkina Faso's mining industry has been expanding and is now the most important sector of the economy. Main exports are gold, which comprise 70 percent of total exports, plus cotton, zinc, phosphate rock, and livestock. Although China has already sunk investment in the country, it hasn’t really followed through due to pressing issues, utmost is the continuing internal strife.

       Ouagadougou is the only African state to have twice recognized the Republic of China or Taiwan: in 1964 and in 1994. As a result, Taiwan helped finance some of Burkina Faso leaderships’ political programs to the detriment of the People's Republic of China in Beijing. Yet in 2018, Burkina Faso cut ties with Taiwan and then re-established diplomatic relations with the Mainland.

       Beijing, meantime, is very wary of the active terrorism in the region—but expressed willingness to provide assistance if Ouagadougou fights terror groups and safeguard national security. Wait and see. China doesn’t normally gamble FDIs in countries beset by conflict. And as the usual case, it is the U.S. that takes care of that troublesome political gig. This time though, Burkina Faso is calling on Russia, which is of course a BFF of China, to fix its mess. 🇧🇫☮️🇧🇫

APPARENTLY, Russia or President Vladimir Putin is busy with the Ukraine situation to give attention to Burkina Faso. Meantime, the United States’ presence in BF is more via Peace Corps programs and Washington’s aid to the constantly beleaguered nation is still extremely limited although investment possibilities exist, especially in the mining and communications sectors. But when?

       Which brings us to China. In 2018 or prior to Covid-19 pandemic, Beijing unveiled a whopping $60 billion African aid package, all related to the Belt and Road Africa infrastructure development fund. The budget has long surged as BRI pushes through.

       Before all these, the IMF has declared Africa the world’s second-fastest growing region, and many are predicting that it is well on its way to becoming a $5 trillion economy, as household consumption is expected to increase at a 3.8 percent yearly clip to $2.1 trillion by 2025. The attention of the world is now drifting towards Africa. Regardless of the political instability, China coming-in is no longer a radical projection. Beijing is very interested.

        Besides, despite internal troubles, Burkina Faso still registers a fine GDP growth rate of 6.67 percent, a huge jump from 2020’s and 1.93 percent and 2019’s 5.7 percent. Also, the country, which is around the geographic size of Nevada, is relatively easier to handle, per infrastructure upgrade.

       However, it would seem Burkina Faso has no choice. It seeks Russia’s help but Moscow is into Ukraine at this moment. As ever, smaller/poorer nations will have to wait till the larger geopolitical catfight subsides or ends before their “benefactors” could put attention on them. But knowing China, it quietly courses its moves with certainty on the sideline—as we view the Ukraine Drama. 🇧🇫☮️🇧🇫