Compilation of short MORNING THOUGHTS.

Previously posted on my Facebook Page.

UKRAINE STORY. “Giveaways” or givens: Movements of troops mean budget; “restrained/controlled” human/property collateral damage ensue. Sadly, these are obligatories of geopolitical power play sans actual war. But let me get these facts out of the way: (1) 3.5 million Ukrainians work in Russia. Moscow is Kiev’s #1 trading partner. (2) Before Russian oil/natural gas exports reach Europe, they have to pass through Ukraine. Ergo: Russia and Ukraine are economic co-dependents. 

       Repeat: Russia and Ukraine are economic co-dependents, and so a bloody Russian invasion is not just stupid and costly but self-destructive. Both countries’ energy (oil/natural gas) lifelines would suffer, industrial village halts, and Moscow’s energy market juju gets hit badly—although many say Vlad Putin is using the drama to influence/manipulate fuel pricing. Could be. But the negatives outweigh the positives. Full operation of the Russia/Germany Nord Stream 2 (completed in Sept) has long been delayed. 

       Sure, there is an unresolved business issue between Kiev’s largest gas company Naftogaz and Moscow’s state-owned Gazprom, which funded 50 percent of Nord Stream. Both energy giants have been duking it out for years albeit via media but for the good of both their markets (which is mostly Europe, which is profit), they gotta fix it on the table. A war, again, is stupid—unless a bigger picture looms which brings us to the larger geopolitical power play that, of course, got Trump the whip in 2019. 

       Germany is the other huge investor in the Nord Stream pipeline. Austria, France, and the Netherlands are also involved. But to get the pipeline moving, Berlin has got to give the go-signal. But Germany has just installed a new Chancellor and a new ruling political party. This is post-Angela Merkel, who signed the gas deal in 2012. Apparently, Olaf Scholz isn’t ready yet. Meanwhile, why is President Biden so hot with “Let’s do it!” or “Defend Ukraine” instead of maximizing diplomatic channels? 

       From 2016 to 2020, the United States gained stature as #1 in oil production, oil export, and natural gas production. That’s what Trump handed Biden. But at this point, the U.S. is only #6 in natural gas export. Russia is #1. Russia is also #2 in oil production and about to unseat Saudi Arabia for #2 ranking in oil export. In other words, if Nord Stream goes full stream, Russia gains. I mean, come on! Why can’t they simply sit and talk for profit? No war? 

       The media pitch is Fear. Fear of more viruses, fear of more war. Justify NATO funding. After the Ukraine/Russia Nord Stream issue is resolved, then what? We go to the next pipeline firestorm: TAPI or Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) Pipeline. Meantime, there are 70 operating oil and gas pipelines that cross the Canada-U.S. border. Dig that? All this energy pipeline drama and then, what “climate change” are we talking about? Sarcasm. 🇷🇺☮️🇺🇦

Do you also notice that lighting is mostly dark in some TV series? I haven’t noticed the literal darkness until these past two years of pandemic, while we are mostly indoors, in front of TV. Research from Boston Univ reveals that depression has persisted into 2021, and even worsened, climbing to 32.8 percent and affecting 1 in every 3 American adults. I am cool though, just my old-age eyes get physically annoyed. But I get the “keep the funk deep,” here's a more dark + Zoloft upgrade. LOL! 📺🥺📺

With all the “protocols” and injuries in the NBA, the team roster should be 30 players. Payroll will spike. But games carry on. In the future, humanity will be on constant "virus protocol," Zoloft royale, but we will live longer. Yet weaker. Physically, mentally. We won’t even notice. Wellness foods are squeezed in pills. Athletes will be holograms, clones, or A.I.s Movies are shot in Mars, free of viruses. So we'll always have ESPN—and Netflix, Hulu, and AppleTV. Sweet! 🚀👽💊

Covid-19 vaccines are distributed for free in the U.S. You do not need to pay any out-of-pocket costs to get an authorized vaccine. Clear? But “free” isn’t really free. Vaccination “benefit” is paid for by taxes. Taxpayer’s money. Tax also goes to FEMA disaster relief that is still being awaited so Big Guy Morgan Stanley fronts the money, the $500 million annual payroll for Capitol security, the $18 billion initially handed to 6 drug giants for vax dev’t per Warp Speed, and the $770 billion military budget. 

       Most of the $770 Defense money also goes to “military aid” to allies of the United States, like the countries in Sub Saharan Africa. They get weapons out of U.S. tax money instead of vaccines. Only 4 percent of Africa is Covid vaccinated at this point--and before Covid 2020, 6 million people die there annually from various deadly diseases, most of which don’t have vaccines. Just cold facts, no political insight. 💵💉💵

The NIGERIA Story.

Previously posted on my Facebook page. Not updated. 

NIGERIA is a regional power in Africa, a middle power in international affairs, and is an emerging global power. Well, it should be. First off, Nigeria is a global power in terms of oil and natural gas, #14 and #7 in production, respectively. Abuja is also world’s #7th oil exporter and 10th natural gas exporter.

       Add major agricultural/fishery wealth of sesame seeds, cashew nuts, cocoa beans, ginger, frozen shrimp and cotton, and mining resources that include coal, lignite and coke, gold, iron ore, and uranium. However, Nigeria is the poorest nation on earth—40 percent or 87 million of the 206 million population live below the international poverty line of $1.90 per person per day.    

       Its GDP per capita of $2,175.67 is low compared with other developing countries. The country’s GDP growth rate is a measly 2.9 percent, from last year’s 1.5 percent.

       Why is that?

       Nigeria remains one of the most corrupt nations in the world. Since its independence from the British in 1960, it hasn’t really prospered. The civil war of 1967 to 1970 made things worse. Democratically elected civilian governments were punctuated by military dictatorships. Massive tribal animosities also stunt concerted efforts for development. More than 250 ethnic groups speaking 500 distinct languages, all identifying with a wide variety of cultures, make up Nigeria. 🇳🇬🇳🇬🇳🇬

ECONOMIC inequality among the population is mostly gleaned from the disparity between GDP growth and people’s life. No matter how high the economic progress, if (economic) wealth isn’t equally shared with the people, we still see a poor nation. India is another case in point. High GDP (currently 8+ percent) but low human development index, although not the lowest in the world.

       In the case of Nigeria, its major wealth of crude oil and natural gas don’t translate to quantifiable national economic gain since these companies that drill/profit from these resources are foreign corporations, and of course, in partnership with the country’s few rich or what we call 1 Percent.

       Shell Petroleum is the largest oil and gas company in Nigeria. The other majors are also universal titans: Chevron, ExxonMobil, Total, Agip, Texaco. Yet despite the petroleum industry as its top moneymaker (supposedly) since the sector collars 98 percent of export trade, unemployment is perennial high, currently 33 percent.

       Nigeria’s top trading partners are Brazil, China, India, Japan, the U.S. and the European Union—with China, expectedly, the most aggressive in recent years.

       Apparently, Nigeria has got to play smart on the geopolitical game board to be able to gain trade traction. After a $40 billion pledge in Chinese investments last year, the government adjusted its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan and ordered Taipei’s trade mission out of Abuja. 🇳🇬🇳🇬🇳🇬

NIGERIA isn’t the only African nation that thumbs up China (over Taiwan) as strategic political smarts vis a vis economic gain. In the U.N., 25 African countries backed Beijing during a recent vote about the Hong Kong national security law. Of course, China and Taiwan aren’t really fighting. In fact, Taipei’s top trading partner is Beijing. But you know geopolitics works, I guess.

       With the “Out you go!” call on Taiwan, Nigeria has since become an important source of oil and petroleum for China's rapidly growing economy. According to a 2019 report issued by the Chinese embassy, Nigeria hosts 70 construction, 40 investments and 30 trading Chinese companies.

       Meanwhile, U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Nigeria was $5.5 billion in 2019, a 21.5 percent increase from 2018. Seemed like a token economic gesture? Yet Washington is the single largest donor for the humanitarian response in Nigeria, having provided nearly $505 million in Fiscal Years 2020 and 2021. But most of the aid goes to funding the military pursuit of Boko Haram, an Islamic terrorist organization based in northeastern Nigeria, which is also active in Chad, Niger, and northern Cameroon.

       The United States is committed to supporting efforts by Nigeria and its neighbors to combat the threat of Boko Haram more effectively. From FY 2016-FY 2020, $1.8 million was obligated for Nigeria in Foreign Military Financing.

       Of course, Beijing doesn’t sink its feet on issues of this kind. The U.S. willingly takes care of terrorism and other political shudders; China hands over FDIs. 🇳🇬🇳🇬🇳🇬

The Brazil Story.

Previously posted on my Facebook page. Not updated. 

HOWEVER the way (or angle) we view, observe, or judge Brazil—it is still huge. Brazil has the world’s #5 largest population at 212.6 million and the 5th largest country by land area. Bounded by the Atlantic Ocean on the east, Brazil has a coastline of 4,655 miles. It borders all other countries in South America except Ecuador and Chile and covers 47.3 percent of the continent's land area.

        Brazil boasts of its massive Amazon basin, which includes a vast tropical forest, home to diverse wildlife, a variety of ecological systems, and extensive natural resources spanning numerous protected habitats. This unique environmental heritage makes the giant geography one of 17 megadiverse countries, and is the subject of significant global interest per environmental facts, issues, and impacts.

       Moreover, Brazil is also the 10th largest consumer market. Brasília is only the world’s #26-ranked exporter and #29th in imports but the country has the largest share of global wealth in South America and it is one of the world's major breadbaskets, being the largest producer of coffee for the last 150 years.

       Brazil also has the largest GDP in Latin America. In terms of regional and global decision-making, Brasilia is integral. It is a founding member of the United Nations, the G20, BRICS, Mercosul, Organization of American States, Organization of Ibero-American States and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries. When a global shudder happens, Brazil’s position is perennially asked. 🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷

BRAZIL’s chief industries are all global imperatives: Iron and steel production, automobile assembly, petroleum processing, chemicals production, and cement making; technologically based industries have been the most dynamic in recent years, but have not outpaced traditional industries—which make Brazil a trading powerhouse, globally.

       Brazil’s export crops are also among the world’s tops: Soybeans, sugarcane, coffee, beef, and orange juice. Brazil exported 86 million metric tons of soybeans in 2020, accounting for roughly 50 percent of the world's exports.

       As expected, Brazil’s top trading partner is China, which enjoys 28.11 percent of Brasilia’s export/import business. The U.S. is a distant second, 13.25 percent. Next: Netherlands and neighbor Argentina. Of the 15 most exported Brazilian commodities, China is the main importer of 11, while the U.S. is the main importer of only two.

       In fact, Brazil is the main destination for Chinese investments in South America, receiving $66.1 billion, equivalent to 47 percent of the total amount invested, in the decade up to 2020. Brazilian/Beijing business flourished, regardless of Covid-19 pandemic. In 2021 China bought over 30 percent of Brazil's physical exports, up from less than 20 percent five years earlier.

       As expected, Chinese companies are also involved in the oil exploration in Brazil. The consortium which won the right to explore Brazil's largest pre-salt oil camp, Libra, has two Chinese companies -- CNOOC and CNPC, along with Total, Shell and Brazil's own state-controlled oil giant Petrobras. Some 23 Chinese companies are all over Brazil.

       Does Brazil rely on China? I think this is no brainer. Brazil and China are members of an economic organization called BRICS, also consisting of Russia, India, and South Africa. 🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷

MAJOR reasons for the United States’ less aggressive business investing in Brazil: High-profile amounts of corruption, crime and social inequality. Add cumbersome and complex taxation, bureaucratic delays, and rigid labor legislation. Even so, American FDIs are still funneled through manufacturing, finance and insurance, and mining.

       However, the complexity of Washington’s relationship with Brasilia always points to politics—because the U.S. is more concerned with its geopolitical persona from the latter part of the 20th century towards 21st century, as China and Russia moved to put ideological fire in the backburner over economic diversification and trade expansionism.

       Today’s political classes in South/Latin America are still scarred by the history of U.S. interventions, often involving the overthrow of democratically elected governments such as Salvador Allende in Chile and João Goulart in Brazil during the Cold War.

       Even among supposedly cordial partners in democracy, Washington’s record as a dependable, trustworthy power has been cast in the dark because of its history of betraying and abandoning its former allies in favor of policing based on what the U.S. believes as just, reasonable, and humane.

       Latin America’s largely snub of President Biden’s call for sanction against Russia on account of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine—is an example of the weakening of America’s clout in the region. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro declined to condemn Putin and said Brazil would remain neutral.

       Mr Bolsonaro added that he was against any sanctions that could bring negative repercussions for Brazil, citing Russian fertilizers which are crucial for the country's giant agribusiness sector. And, of course, Latin America—including Brazil—is a huge buyer of Russian military equipment. But that’d be another subject to discuss. 🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷

WHAT'S UP? Joe's Exit, Donald's Entry.

From my chat with friends on Facebook.

PRESIDENT Biden and his loyal hawks are obviously escalating the war before Donald Trump sits. We don't know what the incoming POTUS will do because he is future tense, incoming. What is clear though is Joe intends to leave Donald a huge-ass mess or heightened fighting so his (T) campaign pledge to end this war faces huge roadblocks, probably prompting Congress to vote to keep military aid to Kyiv alive and active. 

      (A GOP majority Senate and House doesn't mean anti-war, regardless of Mr Trump or Elon/Vivek's advice to save taxpayer money for something else, such as purchase of more silicon from China, improvement of border security, and upgrade of FEMA funding).     

       Donald Trump's game is, as expected, unpredictable. In April 2017, he dropped MOABs in Afghanistan and Syria yet he u-turned or issued a dovish variation next. He built his trade leverage that way then carried on. Meanwhile, Russia clearly wants to end this war as it now affects its economy per military expenses mostly (irrelevant of BRICS bros China and India buying Gazprom's stuff). 

       Vladimir Putin already talked with Germany's Olaf Scholz right after November 5. The no brainer: Get Nord Stream 2 pipeline operating? Also, the EU needs to get its economy alive from 0.4 percent pace. But Vlad can't be bullied, not by hawkish lord Joe, so he responds to Mr Biden's new aggro military moves. 

       But even if a semblance of peace takes place in Ukraine as Donald sits, hawks are now instigating new tempests in Georgia. Same with the Middle East situation. New shakin’ and rattlin’ ensue each time some calm seems to find some moments. 

       Top Trump aide Elon Musk talked with Iran's new moderate leadership to pull back from responding to Israel, arms tete a tete. Not good. Tehran hasn't recovered yet since pandemic or before pandemic due to sanctions; even after sanctions, the country is in economic agony.

       (China is Iran's top energy buyer. Elon apparently wants China's "good boy!" love so they more Mr Musk pacifies the Iranians, good. China isn't high on war.) 🏛🗽🏛

MENA wants to lessen or totally eradicate the "arms for oil" bilateral deal thingy with Washington and Brussels due to the obvious. Especially after the 2010's Arab Spring, the region wants lesser Western encroachment. And they are already rich. They just wanna do business and have some Western-styled fun as well.

       Meanwhile, China sank huge-ass FDIs in MENA as Egypt, UAE and Iran join BRICS. Trade is Trump's ball game. He has better chat lines to the Kremlin and MBS or Riyadh, de facto boss of the Arab League. But then here comes the hawks in Syria. 

       Makes me think. What power is actually behind Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and "Syrian rebels," especially after they took out the Quds' chief Qasem Soleimani in 2020. Arms for oil gotta live? But then I refuse to ride the hate bandwagon versus Donald Trump. He isn't a god who could stop wars but his playbook is contrary to what Joe Biden implemented. I'd rather see what's up ahead with that than "predict" per anti-T subjectivity. 🏛🗽🏛

Anti-war, Forever and Ever.

From my response to Facebook chats etcetera.

I HAVE gotten old being anti-war in two countries (or continents). So I broke down all my "little" ancillary idealisms into a singular activism: Anti-war. War breeds all the evils humanity is guilty of. 

       So I don't really give a hoot what political party, what cultural weirdness, what uncoolness, or what sort of donut people are aligned with or prefer. If that person is against wars and wastage of lives and resources in wars, I'd toss a PBR to that guy. 

       Tactical alliance. Long time ago in the Philippines, we sat with people who thumbed-down our avowed ideology but we agreed to work together to help bring down a dictatorship (a real one, not an imagined one). We succeeded. 

       Two wars are still ongoing. The Middle East fire is escalating. And if the current leadership won, the one being goaded in Asia's South China Sea would most likely stoke tempests as well in the region. It's not like, voila, no more wars in 2025! We know hawks in Washington will be prepared. 

       But I'd rather bet on an obnoxious mouth who had two peace talks than one with a calm tone that tossed arms to two wars. ☮️☮️☮️

The TANZANIA Story.

Previously posted on my Facebook page. Not updated. 

NEWS: “Tanzania’s First Female President Wants to Bring Her Nation in From the Cold.” And adds: “Samia Suluhu Hassan became the only female head of government in Africa when her predecessor suddenly died. She is setting a new course.” The utmost issue in Tanzania, as in almost all of Sub Saharan Africa, goes beyond gender politics. Gut. Fundamentals of existence. Fact is, most of the continent’s problems, notably unattended diseases, gnaw and bite and kill as we in America talk and argue politics, nonstop.

       Although the government in Dodoma has made some progress towards reducing extreme hunger and malnutrition in recent years, the pandemic’s whip and continued sociopolitical strife, with some sliding from across its borders place the country’s 61 million population in distress.

       The Global Hunger Index ranked the Tanzanian situation as "alarming" with a score of 42 in the year 2000; since then, the GHI has declined to 29.5. Children in rural areas suffer substantially higher rates of malnutrition and chronic hunger, although urban-rural disparities have narrowed as regards both stunting and underweight.

       Low rural sector productivity arises mainly from inadequate infrastructure investment; limited access to farm inputs, extension services and credit; limited technology as well as trade and marketing support; and heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture and natural resources.

       Hence, if only the world’s two major superpowers agree and pool resources via a common development tact, then there’s hope in Tanzania and the entire Africa. 🇹🇿🇹🇿🇹🇿

APPROXIMATELY 68 percent of Tanzania’s people live below the poverty line of $1.25 a day. 32 percent of the population are malnourished. Yes, despite improvements in the last decade. Regardless of a fluctuating relatively fine GDP growth rate of 4.1 percent to 5.8 percent, the unemployment rate stays high at around 9.30 percent. Such a trend isn’t strange in poorer nations with economic potentials: Unequal distribution of national wealth.

       Tanzania's industry is based on the processing of its agricultural goods and on import substitution—that is, the manufacture (often from imported materials and parts) of products that were once purchased from abroad. The principal industries are food processing, textiles, brewing, and cigarette production. Which easily makes China the country’s top trading partner. Others are Germany, Japan, India, the European Union.

       Historically, China has assisted Tanzania with a variety of economic aid programs. The most notable early aid project was the TAZARA Railway built from 1970 to 1975. The 1,860 km railway connects landlocked Zambia with Dar es Salaam. The Chinese government sent as many as 56,000 workers.

       From 2000 to 2011, there are approximately 62 Chinese official development finance projects identified in Tanzania through various media reports: From the launch of the Tanzania Agricultural Development Bank to a loan of $400 million to help alleviate the Kiwira coal mine's financial problems etc etcetera.

       However, too much loans/investments from foreign powers, as we know it, only weakens a poor nation’s leverage in the long term. So true in Sub Saharan Africa and in almost all underdeveloped or developing economies, especially in regards to financial relations with the IMF and World since the end of World War II. 🇹🇿🇹🇿🇹🇿

TO finally introduce a new level of progress in Tanzania, new president Samia Suluhu Hassan has to institute a better negotiating stance with outside powers, especially economically or amidst a surge of Chinese FDIs that are all directed towards Beijing’s trade expansionism blueprint Belt and Road Initiative.

       A BRI project that was canceled pending renegotiation, was the construction of the Benjamin Mkapa Olympic Stadium in 2020. It was part of a $10 billion loan offered by China to then President John Magufuli, who died last year. The loan was signed by Magufuli’s predecessor Jakaya Kikwete, specifically to construct a port at Mbegani creek in Bagamoyo.

       Chinese investors requested a 30 years guarantee on the loan and 99 years uninterrupted lease. Before his death last year, Magufuli had initiated a renegotiation process by pressing the investors to bring down the lease period to 33 years from 99 years. President Samia Suluhu Hassan takes it from that point.

       Meanwhile, what about the United States and Tanzania relations? 🇹🇿🇹🇿🇹🇿

AS in most if not all of America’s foreign affairs, much of the relationship between Tanzania and the United States has been framed first by the Cold War, which is of course hawk-tied with military/security. Such a stance is exacerbated by the country’s anti-colonial liberation conflicts in southern Africa.

       Second, U.S. policies work around development and investment—per political agreements. Hence, relations between Washington and Dodoma are mostly politically tense, as the U.S. ups its mojo in protecting markets and business interests in Africa via military/security “aid.”

       These interests were often in conflict between 1961, and the late 1980s. However, since the late 1980s, relations between the United States and Tanzania have improved as a result of mutual interests in debt relief, successive refugee crises, the liberation of southern African countries, and an improving Tanzanian economy. Until the Chinese came with their FDI enticements.

       Ergo: Tanzania’s socioeconomic well-being hinges on how its leadership (or governments of “smaller” nations) deals with the United States and China, which obviously differ in tackling their respective foreign affairs. 🇹🇿🇹🇿🇹🇿

The Greatness of America. And a bit of post-Nov 5 stuff.

From my response to Facebook chats etcetera.

DEPENDS on how Americans (or the world) look at "greatness." 

       <>1898 or late 1890s, when the U.S. defeated the Spanish armada? <>1944, Bretton Woods when the U.S. basically started control of global financial life via the IMF and World Bank? The time the U.S. dollar became the global reserve currency? <>1945, bombing of Hiroshima/Nagasaki and the birth of the atomic bomb? <>1949, NATO's birth and Washington as boss of the global military (especially when the Warsaw Pact dissolved in 1991)? 

       <>Years before 1975 when the U.S. last had trade surplus and basically ruled manufacturing? Who can tell? As for me, the weakening of U.S. greatness started in 2000 or the 21st century when China began its trade expansionism. Which was also the beginning of the economic rise of the Asian "tigers," Russia cooled out from its apparatchik girth and (trade) diversified via its oil and natural gas mostly, and oil rich Middle East learned Western styled capitalism. And of course the advent of BRICS which balanced G7. And China's 5 banks basically diminished the lending mojo of the IMF. 

       So essentially because the rest of the world evolved into “little” powers as well albeit economically unlike how the West "won" the world at first, which was via military brinkmanship or outright colonization (sic). And this "weakening" is continually aided by the eerie divide within America. A huge divide (that'd rival the civil war of 1860s) that Howard Zinn predicted before he passed away in 2010. The only way that America could build back better is for its people to show semblance of unity and/or if China closes its door again.

       Yet the ignorance persists saying America isn't great anymore because of its sole doing? I don't think so. This: The rest of the world isn't dumb. They know how to achieve greatness as well but not via military arrogance. (Russia is an economic power regardless if it invaded Ukraine or not.) 🏛🗽🏛

I AM essentially a foreigner in America. I don't see a majority in regards Left/Right. I see a huge divide that I haven't seen in many countries, including in India and China. Whoever won the election. Still the same. Cracked.

       Facebook Friend: “My concerns are not based on Left or Right. My concerns are based on Trump’ss platform and rhetoric.”

       Platform and rhetoric are political truths. I can say all POTUSes, at the time that I started following Washington politics as a journalist and Leftist activist, had really huge talks. That was imperative though. Grandiose speeches are needed so the allied world continues to obey America and hate the "rogues." Etc etcetera. 

       So as I semi-retired around 2010 (I think) I stopped watching politicians and presidents talk. In fact, I stopped watching News on TV altogether. But my reading obsession has tripled. Print, internet. Old publications, new stuff. Left. Right. Center. All. US and the world. Meanwhile, I just follow the leadership "walk" and ignore the "talk." And I am not a fan of drama at all. 🗽🗽🗽

[Visual: Tufts. CTTO.]