MORE on Oil. Pipelines.

Past Facebook posts. Not updated.

OIL and natural gas companies will continue, exponentially earning. Especially that these giants are owned by private corporations. Same with the oil-rich Middle East. Nonstop. In fact, even as the war in Ukraine continues and sanctions on Russia are imposed by the U.S. and most of Europe, energy resource deals are ongoing.

       News on 3/31/2022: “OPEC and Russia are set to meet as the war continues to roil the oil market.” Big producers seem to be sticking to modest output raises and alliance with Russia. No brainer why the Middle East didn’t join the U.S./E.U. collective whip versus Moscow for the invasion. Although war, especially prolonged war, is mostly bad for energy business or business per se. Except for the merchants of war, of course.

       Meantime, in America: “Biden will tap oil reserves, hoping to push gasoline prices down.” The plan would mean release of crude reserves daily for six months—or up to 180 million barrels in all, over 180 days, aimed at helping “ease prices at the pump.” The price per gallon hasn’t really moved in about 2 weeks since the start of Ukraine tempest on Feb 24: At around $4 average.

       I am not an economist, and definitely, I am no oil price expert. So I wonder out loud: By tapping U.S. oil reserves, it’d mean lower gas prices? Let’s see and that’d be awesome. But then, fact is, the U.S. is already #1 in oil production globally since 2016. Yet we still import oil/crude oil from 73 countries. Russia was #4 U.S. importer before Vladimir Putin got infuriated and earned a sanction. Yet even if we kick Moscow out, doesn’t America already have lotsa oil?

       Or this is the rationale post-Ukraine War (please let it end) because the end has just justified the means? Now let’s wait and see if gasoline cost/s per gallon go down to 2019 levels or at least the 7.9 inflation rate is cut in half. ⛽️⚓️⛽️

At the time that I typed this post up, gasoline cost per gallon was at $4.22 average. Remember, it was $2.41 in 2017; $2.74 in 2018; $2.60 in 2019; $2.17 in 2020. On Bidentime, in 2021: #3.15, the lowest cost.

       Sure, Saudi Arabia and Russia are wrestling for price. OPEC and U.S. are pretty much in the thick of the market haggling as well. No brainer since the U.S. and Saudi Arabia/Russia are #1 and #2 (#3) in oil production and oil export.

       Yet look at South America’s average: Below a dollar. Oil-rich Middle East, a bit higher than in Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela et al but still below 1 dollar. Russia, amidst war? $2.10. (Add info: Moscow’s oil industry is state-owned. All oil trunk pipelines, except Caspian Pipeline Consortium, are owned and operated by the government’s monopoly Transneft and oil products pipelines are owned and operated by its subsidiary Transnefteproduct.)

       Meanwhile, gasoline cost in Europe has always been high so the $5.79 in the U.K., $5.57 in Germany, and $5.54 in France aren’t really such a big deal. (Those numbers are last week’s figures.) But let’s see what’s up next per stoppage of supply from its #1 supplier Russia.

       It’d be an understatement to say that the U.S. aimed to grab the top spot as Europe’s oil/gas importer from Russia. So this announcement from the Biden administration of release of U.S. reserves clearly points to impending demands from Washington allies’ in the region.

       Another thing that confounds me is the extent of the United States’ inflation rate, which is now at 7.9 percent. Norway, which is also a bigtime energy exporter: 2.7 percent inflation—although the European average is 6.20 percent. In case you are wondering, inflation in China is 2.2 percent. ⛽️⚓️⛽️

To sort of aid the gasoline problem in the U.S., I read posts and memes that suggest reactivation or lifting of suspension of the Keystone XL pipeline.

      The proposed Phase IV, Keystone XL Pipeline, would have connected the Phase I-pipeline terminals in Hardisty, Alberta, and Steele City, Nebraska, by a shorter route and a larger-diameter pipe. It would have run through Baker, Montana, where American-produced light crude oil from the Williston Basin of Montana and North Dakota would have been added to the Keystone's throughput of synthetic crude oil and diluted bitumen from the oil sands of Canada. And so on and so forth.

       Said pipeline attracted opposition from environmentalists. In 2015 it was temporarily delayed by Obama. In 2017, Trump took action intended to permit the pipeline's completion. But when Biden sat in White House, he signed an executive order to revoke the permit.

       However, I don’t really see much significance of Keystone XL’s pipeline vis a vis America’s flood of oil. You see, there are 70 operating oil and gas pipelines that cross the Canada-US border: 31 oil and 39 natural gas. There are 16 operating pipelines which transport other commodities.

       The United States is also home to the greatest number of oil and gas pipelines in the world. As of December 2020, there were 185 operational oil pipelines in the country and a further 34 under development.

       So why the high cost of energy, again? I don’t blame oil/gas titans per se. I blame economic management by a country’s leadership. There. ⛽️⚓️⛽️

Ukraine War and the Deep State. And Stuff.

Responses to Facebook chats.

THIS Ukraine War gets complicated. Or more complex. <1> During the NATO summit, President Trump dared Europe to increase their budget share to the military alliance; the EU said they will. Already in Trump I, then U.S. share was lowered from 22 percent to 16 percent, currently almost equal with Germany.

 

       Yet still, since the EU renewed its arms support of Ukraine this year, this war continues. The Kremlin is of course pissed. Vladimir Putin's previous peace chat with Donald Trump was negated or derailed. Volodymyr Zelensky's eyes shined! More war means more aid coming. And he stays as Ukraine's President. 

       <2> Last year, the U.S. Congress appropriated a $174 billion (total) aid package to Ukraine; the House approved $61 billion. (Numbers vary per source.) Mr Trump previously held the arms shipment as peace negotiations with the Kremlin ensued. But then here comes NATO (sans Trump's Washington) ready to continue the war. 

       What can The D do but go on, send more U.S. arms. But now he told NATO that now it's Europe's responsibility to toss weapons to Kyiv. Anyhow, fact is, if Mr Trump continues to refuse the aid that Congress approved, he might be impeached again. 

       <3> FEMA had a $7.4 billion deficit last year, which President Trump lowered to $2.9 billion. Then here comes the flooding in Texas. I mean, WTH? Send taxpayer money again to war and ignore the people? America!

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Facebook Friend (from Manila): Yup, and it will get even more complicated because the Deep State (not just Trump) wants to wage a 3-front world war: Vs Russia via proxy Ukraine, Vs Iran via proxy Israel if not directly, and Vs China via Aukus or Quad or whatever alliance it could drum up including its most loyal puppy, the Philippines.

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No POTUS can ever go beyond the Deep State. Some may divert a bit, but still things slide to the hawkish playbook. 

       Jimmy Carter was supposedly all-dove but he had Operation Cyclone dirt all over his "legacy" book. They propped up Barack Obama as a real cool, peace-loving prez. The gullibles bit it. Yet he is one of the most hawkish POTUSes. He prolonged the Afghanistan war and as he left, he installed a U.S -trained prez (Ashraf Ghani) so that didn't go well with the Afghanistan people. 

       Mr Obama also upgraded military aid to Israel in 2016. (And he also deported the most number of migrants, 400,000 average, in his first 4 years.) 

       Sans his unbelievable mouth, I am cool with Donald Trump's policy playbook but that doesn't mean he can ignore the Deep State. That's just the way it is. 

       The Philippines actually registered a fine economic growth, so far at 5.6 percent. The 9 U.S. military bases are a given, what can we do? We kicked Clark and Subic, only to be upgraded later, by more. President Marcos Jr. has to play economics with China, dance politics with the U.S. Pretty much like Vietnam. As long as there's no actual war in the South China Sea, besides the usual drama, all are cool. But then our politicians are such Washington suckers, LOL! Ah those USAID… But that is another huge subject to discuss. ☮️☮️☮️

Filipinos and U.S. Politics.

Responses to Facebook chats.

BACKGROUND: I edited Filipino/Asian newspapers in New York City and Los Angeles. My take: Filipinos are majority Democrats, historically. Although Bill Clinton's (sexual) shenanigans split them big time in the 1990s, their views are essentially via the woman's choice. That is a cultural truth. 

       Filipino-American community leader Loida Lewis and her organizing mojo hugely helped Hillary Clinton in her New York run in 2000, for example. But families are usually split in politics; although Filipino households don't really discuss politics as often as Americans do. 

       We vote, we go home, and do other things than sit and talk about Donald Trump or Joe Biden. Waste of time. Largely, Filipinos are not really aligned per Democrat or Republican. Though, as I mentioned, my “kababayans” tend to go Blue, they don't usually prance around declaring that. 

       Back home in the Philippines, it is multiparty but majority Conservative per Catholicism as cultural fact (not per political ideology). So in case you meet a Filipino and say I am Democrat or Republican, in most cases, they are just being polite or trying to avoid a lengthy discussion on the subject of Trump, LOL! 

       Also, Filipinos who came here as adults and Filipinos who came here as kids to study and evolve as adults and Filipinos who were born here are all different Filipinos. 🗽🇵🇭🗽

THE MALAYSIA STORY.

Past Facebook posts. Not updated.

MALAYSIA and China’s relations are an example why neighbors in the region, despite intermittent disputes, are not going to evolve into warring forces. Both countries are claimants in the South China Sea territorial quarrel and in recent times has resulted in some friction. In fact, a 2014 survey conducted by the Pew Research Center showed 66 percent of Malaysians were concerned that territorial disputes between China and neighboring countries (which also include Japan, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Vietnam) could lead to a military conflict.

       Nope. Didn’t happen and will never happen.

       On the economic side, a 2017 survey conducted by Merdeka Center revealed 70 percent of Malaysians supported China's presence and investment in the country. In another survey in 2019 done by Ipsos, around 74 percent of respondents in Malaysia perceived that China would be a positive influence on world affairs over the next decade.

       That view hasn’t really changed. In 2016, during the administration of Najib Razak, 14 trade, energy and defense agreements worth $34.7 million, were signed between the two countries. 🇲🇾🇲🇾🇲🇾

FROM 2016 to 2022, Malaysian and Chinese relations haven’t really changed much, regardless of episodic rift in re South China Sea territorial issues. Bilateral trade between the two countries surpassed $190 billion this year based on current trends, expected to move towards $200 billion.

       Kuala Lumpur’s trade with China in the first seven months had expanded by 16.9 percent, compared to the same period of 2021. Exports grew by 13.2 percent, boosted by higher exports of electrical and electronic products (E&E), liquefied natural gas (LNG), and scrap metal. Imports from China climbed by 19.8 percent.

       Malaysia’s chief industries are electronics, semiconductors, microchips, integrated circuits, rubber, oleochemicals, automotive, optical devices, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, smelting, timber, wood pulp, Islamic finance, petroleum, liquified natural gas, petrochemicals, and telecommunication product. Easily, China is the country’s top trading partner. 🇲🇾🇲🇾🇲🇾

THE United States is Malaysia’s 3rd top trading partner behind Singapore. American FDIs are concentrated on manufacturing, although Washington seeks to expand relations to include security, environmental cooperation, and educational and cultural relations. Malaysia is a diverse democracy and is an important partner in U.S. engagement with Southeast Asia.

       The countries cooperate closely on security matters, including counterterrorism, maritime domain awareness, and regional stability, and participate frequently in bilateral and multilateral training, exercises, and visits.

       However, I must say as I always insist, that America should double-down on economic relations over security/military matters in Asia because a ruffling of waters—as in the recent attempt in Taiwan—won’t work. China and its neighbors, including Malaysia, will always have some issues to disagree on but I don’t think these will evolve into destructive arms clashes.

       As an emphasis on regional cordiality, in Nov 2020, China gathered 15 nations in the region to forge the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which accounts for about 30 percent of the world's population and 30 percent of global GDP, making it the largest trade bloc in history. These countries are Australia, Brunei, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and of course, China. China, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea are among the largest economies in Asia. 🇲🇾🇲🇾🇲🇾

MY THOUGHTS about the NEWS.

Previously posted on my Facebook Page.

NY Times: “The Progressive Politicians Who Failed San Francisco.” And adds: “Such as Aaron Peskin, a little-known progressive politician.” San Francisco has always been the center of liberal activism and progressive ideals in America. Recall the beatnik and hippie countercultures of the 1950s to 1970s? Yet as the 21st century strode in, Frisco soared to the heights of ideological overreach. Idealism’s unrealism.  🏛🗽🏛

New York Times: “‘Get Somebody Else to Do It’: Trump Resistance Encounters Fatigue.” And adds: “Donald J. Trump’s grass-roots opponents search for a new playbook as they reckon with how little they accomplished during his first term.” Of course, of course. Anger, and hate, and all that unbelievable energy consumed on fantastic vilification of Donald Trump! Exhausting, you ask? Chill, okay? 🏛🗽🏛

Smithsonian: “Italian Police Arrest ‘Clumsy’ Tomb Raiders Who Allegedly Posted Stolen Etruscan Artifacts on Facebook.” Everything has to be on Facebook, I guess. I am guilty as well, in a lot of ways. My dinner, my room, cats and dog, what I did yesterday, Goodwill purchases, stuff. But I don't post details of personal drama. Of course I have drama as well. I'd rather translate my whinings into kickass food pics. 😏😒🤨

New York Times: “Cease-Fire Talks Between Israel and Hamas Gain Momentum, Officials Say.” The deal wasn’t yet in hand after a truce but Donald Trump couldn’t wait, it seems. Of course, it is still Joe Biden and his hardcore hawks running Washington's military infrastructure. And it seems they are intent on leaving Mr Trump a huge mess. But I also pin my hopes for peace in the Arab League. They don't want these wars. ☮️☮️☮️

Washington Post: “Israel launches dozens of airstrikes on Syria, draws U.N. condemnation.” / “Netanyahu takes the stand in his corruption trial. Here’s what to know.” I don't see the sense in Bibi ordering strikes on Syria right after Bashar al-Assad was swept out of power. The regime has already been “changed.” Let the country calm down a bit. As I suggested earlier, Israel would be Donald Trump's major headache. 🇸🇾☮️🇮🇱

AP: “Assad is granted political asylum in Russia after the fall of Damascus.” What is so big a deal with Bashar al-Assad in Russia? Benefactors save dictators from the burning rage of their people. Count strongman Ferdinand Marcos Sr. of the Philippines who was flown by the U.S. to Hawaii in 1986. The Marcoses were never prosecuted for their crimes. In fact, Imelda won her racketeering trial in New York in 1990. ☮️☮️☮️

NY Times: “Bogged Down in Ukraine, Russia Pays a Price in Syria.” With the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin suffered “one of his biggest geopolitical setbacks,” says The Times. It doesn't really matter much. Geopolitics has evolved. With Donald Trump as POTUS, a reconfigured playing field looms. As long as he pursues a dovish policy, I am cool with Mr Trump's playbook. As Russia continues selling oil. ☮️☮️☮️

NY Sun: “Suspect in UnitedHealth CEO Killing May Have Spiraled From Debilitating Pain, Had "Ill Will' Toward Corporate America.” Luigi Mangione isolated himself for months leading up to the violent murder. Many harbor “ill will” toward corporate America. But not many would spiral to deadly rage. Yet I read some celebrating his act. Me? I am relieved that he didn't plant a bomb in a building. Still, he self-destructed. ☮️🗽☮️

New York Times: “Am I a Hypocrite for Calling Donald Trump a Liar?” The magazine’s Ethicist on hypocrisy. Uh huh. All politicians lie. That is a fact and the truth. Depends on their rationales, motivations, and tactics and strategies of governance, of course. But we need to elaborate what really is a “lie” in politics. Tell me what POTUS didn’t lie. For example, he said he will not pardon his errant son. He lied.  🏛🗽🏛

Associated Press: “Record contract: Juan Soto agrees to record $765 million, 15-year contract with Mets.” All these multi-million$ contracts in pro sports are getting to be ridiculously absurd. Mr Soto would be 41 years old in 15 years. I don't think he'd be able to sustain his energy and skill that long. Yet these astronomical salaries insult other employees that team owners should compensate justly. ⚾️💰⚾️

Stuff and Politics. Democrats and Republicans and Those In-Betweens.

Previously posted on my Facebook page. Or written years ago, unedited/not updated.

PEOPLE leaning towards the Democrats (or progressive bloc or leftist mindset) are still fighting as the Republican camp watches in quiet glee. I don't think the Dems will make any effort to convince or persuade the current GOP supporter/voters to their side, no. They call them idiots. And some are even proposing that Bernie runs as an Independent or with another party. Sad. I don't think it's about the candidates or parties anymore—now it has evolved into people's individual takes on stuff. Yes indeed, two warring camps of the Dems are knocking each other out. Let's do the math: The Dems/Hillary are losing possible votes—while maybe the GOPs (in the light of Trump's softer stand in re Republican leadership) are building up their fort for November.

 

       I remember the fight between two forces in the Organized Left back home: the Rejectionists and Reaffirmists. It eventually spelled the downfall of the Left. But we were not talking about elections. We were talking about a segment of society—but a segment that is valuable as fiscalizers and change-movers. So whoever was elected as President, the progressives treated the chasm as a way to reflect inward—since we are all Filipinos, that's the truth and our country is the Philippines. The country has improved since then yet we are still working things out. At least we are not begging for dough from the IMF anymore. 

       What bothers me about some people, in the light of Bernie Sanders' nomination loss, is how people show hatred against America as their country. I don't think it is right to be ashamed of one's country just because some don't favor a President. When I left my country in 1998, I was angry with the new administration—as I was angry most of my adult life with the Martial Law-propelled dictatorship. But that anger was fired up by my love for my country. Never in my career as a journalist and activist have I felt ashamed of being a Filipino. The Philippines wasn't Ferdinand Marcos as America isn't Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. America is all about Americans. ☮️🗽☮️

THE world is watching and the world isn't dumb. I don't think that an American who struts around the streets of Toulouse, France mumbling “Oh how I hate my country!” will be embraced by the French as their own. Show us how good and brilliant you are as an American—I don't care about your President. Then you will be part of any piece of sociocultural geography you wanna be. Same way as how the media malign the Philippine president-elect. I don't care about what Newsweek says. I care about my people and my country. I am sure if President Rodrigo Duterte starts reincarnating as the despots of the past, Filipinos will be out on the streets again to kick him out. Meantime, Filipinos will always be Filipinos irrelevant who sits in the Palace.

       I love America for what it is as I love the Philippines for the way it is. Like family. I will fight for my family no matter how I argue/d with my dad. Wherever I or we end up, we will always be seen as American or Filipino. We cannot change that. So instead of fighting, why don't we sit down and work things out for the betterment of the collective community and entire nation? When the smokes of elections have simmered and gone, it all boils down to an America to, by and for Americans. Not the Republicans and Democrats anymore. A politician, or political party or a fraction of a nation doesn't make a country—it is the people's majority voice that counts. 

       Yet if we will always question election outcomes in a democratic system—then we will always question stuff and things that don't go our way. I don't like the new president back home but it's the people's will that did it. That's just the way life goes. The people. If I believe that the people who voted for the person that I didn't like need reeducation so the next time they vote for a leader, they'd choose better—then I will start regrouping on that end. Advocate and convince and show by example. But I will not call them “idiots.” I may just end up with a bloody nose if I do that. I know how to do it. But I digress. ☮️🗽☮️

The POLAND Story.

Previously posted on my Facebook page. Not updated. 

TWO things that come to my mind when Poland is the subject of talk. Start of World War II when Adolf Hitler’s troops invaded Poland on September 1, 1939. And “kielbasa,” the catch-all term for any Polish sausage. History and food. Meanwhile, Poland remains as a chief background take-off of political intrigues in Central Europe, especially between the United States, European Union, and Russia.

       Although Washington maintains its 32nd Air Base and 600 to 800 troops in Poland, the U.S. is not a chief economic partner. Major partners for exports are Germany, Czech Republic, United Kingdom, France and Italy and for imports: Germany, China, Russian Federation, Italy and Netherlands. Which means, Berlin is Warsaw’s top trade buddy, regardless of what went down in World War II.

       Chief industries: Agriculture, manufacturing and mining. Even though agriculture and manufacturing still play a significant role in the country's future, they are slowly losing their positions to the newly emerging industries. Which brings us to China.

       Chinese-Polish economic relations revolve around areas such as finance, agricultural technology, copper industry and coal mining. This also includes new areas like high technology, clean energy, labor, service and infrastructure. 🇵🇱🇵🇱🇵🇱

CONTACTS between Polish and Chinese people date back several centuries, especially in the mid-17th century when mutual trade was very active from 1950s to 1990s. Relations soured a bit in 2019 when Huawei employee Wang Weijing was arrested in Poland on charges of spying for China. Business, however, carries on.

       China continues to import more Polish agricultural and food products and other high-quality goods. Xi Jinping continually encourages more Chinese enterprises to invest in Poland, adding that he believes Poland will provide a fair, just and non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese enterprises.

       In February this year, China also reiterated its mutual work with Poland to establish a China-Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) wholesale market for agricultural products in Poland and make it a flagship project of China-CEEC cooperation.

       Meanwhile, the United States and Poland have enjoyed warm bilateral relations since 1989. Every post-1989 Polish government has been a strong supporter of continued American military and economic presence in Europe, and Poland is one of the most stable allies of Washington. 🇵🇱🇵🇱🇵🇱