The ZAMBIA Story .

NEW York Times: “Zambia and Its New President Are Still on Their Honeymoon.” And adds: “Hakainde Hichilema is hailed as a miracle worker for turning around the fortunes of the southern African country. But with his opposition neutralized and a corruption drive focused on his predecessors, some are uneasy.” I guess, there will always be a problem. Meanwhile, Zambia stays as an arena for America vs China tug of whatever. Sadly, that’s how things are in mostly “smaller” nations.

       The fact of the matter is, Zambia’s economy is modest per African standard. Its 3.8 percent GDP growth rate is along the region’s 3.6 percent average, and while unemployment at 12.6 percent is high per global rates, that is a lower than the region’s 20+ percent average. For example, joblessness in Eswatini is 26 percent; Djibouti, 28 percent.

       Perhaps “good” in Zambia means no war? Primal peace is primal heaven for Zambia’s 19.5 million humanity. Not until some proxy war invites strife again, or Mr Hichilema misbehaves?

As we speak though, China and its state-owned lending institutions are battling it out per loans with the West’s International Monetary Fund. 🇿🇲🇿🇲🇿🇲

ZAMBIA’s chief industries include copper mining and processing, construction, emerald mining, beverages, food, textiles, chemicals, fertilizer and horticulture. Top trading partners: Switzerland, China, Congo, Singapore and South Africa for exports; South Africa, China, United Arab Emirates, India and Congo for imports.

       What hugs the country’s economic marquee these days though is the heightened competition between Beijing and IMF. Early in September, Lusaka secured a zero-interest loan of $1.3 billion with a grace period of five-and-a-half years, and a final maturity of 10 years, from the International Monetary Fund.

       Meanwhile, later in the month, some 300 Chinese and Zambian companies (with 90 participating online) met for a two-day event in Lusaka bombastically billed "China-Zambia Trade and Investment Forum in the New Era: All-weather, All-Dimensional and High Quality Friendship.” The opening ceremony was attended by Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema and Chinese Ambassador to Zambia, Du Xiaohui.

       No economic amount has been disclosed yet but it is expected that Beijing will waive a comnsiderable chunk of Lusaka’s debt, which is roughly 30 percent of Zambia’s total foreign debt. 🇿🇲🇿🇲🇿🇲

WHILE China zooms in on its characteristic FDI mojo in Africa, the United States stays focused on aid: Political/economic matters and humanitarian issues. USAID has committed $44 million to agricultural development programs in Zambia, promising diversification and increased female empowerment in the country’s economic recovery. That amount though is a lot lower than what the top 15 USAID recipient-countries get annually.

       U.S. officials believe diversification will yield benefits in the country’s economic growth and food security. Just three sectors – retail trade, mineral extraction and construction – constituted almost half of Zambian GDP before the pandemic.

       USAID’s focus on agricultural development will be welcomed in a country where population growth outstrips domestic agricultural production. In the short term, it is hoped that an $8.5 million export deal with agricultural companies Zdenakie and NewGrowCo will also help to relieve pressure on East African grain importers suffering the consequences of the war in Ukraine.

       This is the sort of “competition” that I favor when superpowers U.S. and China sink their teeth in poorer countries. Trade, just trade. Economics, no war. Or no war intrigue. 🇿🇲🇿🇲🇿🇲