Monday, January 13, 2025

The Brazil Story.

Previously posted on my Facebook page. Not updated. 


HOWEVER the way (or angle) we view, observe, or judge Brazil—it is still huge. Brazil has the world’s #5 largest population at 212.6 million and the 5th largest country by land area. Bounded by the Atlantic Ocean on the east, Brazil has a coastline of 4,655 miles. It borders all other countries in South America except Ecuador and Chile and covers 47.3 percent of the continent's land area.



        Brazil boasts of its massive Amazon basin, which includes a vast tropical forest, home to diverse wildlife, a variety of ecological systems, and extensive natural resources spanning numerous protected habitats. This unique environmental heritage makes the giant geography one of 17 megadiverse countries, and is the subject of significant global interest per environmental facts, issues, and impacts.

       Moreover, Brazil is also the 10th largest consumer market. BrasΓ­lia is only the world’s #26-ranked exporter and #29th in imports but the country has the largest share of global wealth in South America and it is one of the world's major breadbaskets, being the largest producer of coffee for the last 150 years.

       Brazil also has the largest GDP in Latin America. In terms of regional and global decision-making, Brasilia is integral. It is a founding member of the United Nations, the G20, BRICS, Mercosul, Organization of American States, Organization of Ibero-American States and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries. When a global shudder happens, Brazil’s position is perennially asked. πŸ‡§πŸ‡·πŸ‡§πŸ‡·πŸ‡§πŸ‡·




BRAZIL’s chief industries are all global imperatives: Iron and steel production, automobile assembly, petroleum processing, chemicals production, and cement making; technologically based industries have been the most dynamic in recent years, but have not outpaced traditional industries—which make Brazil a trading powerhouse, globally.

       Brazil’s export crops are also among the world’s tops: Soybeans, sugarcane, coffee, beef, and orange juice. Brazil exported 86 million metric tons of soybeans in 2020, accounting for roughly 50 percent of the world's exports.

       As expected, Brazil’s top trading partner is China, which enjoys 28.11 percent of Brasilia’s export/import business. The U.S. is a distant second, 13.25 percent. Next: Netherlands and neighbor Argentina. Of the 15 most exported Brazilian commodities, China is the main importer of 11, while the U.S. is the main importer of only two.

       In fact, Brazil is the main destination for Chinese investments in South America, receiving $66.1 billion, equivalent to 47 percent of the total amount invested, in the decade up to 2020. Brazilian/Beijing business flourished, regardless of Covid-19 pandemic. In 2021 China bought over 30 percent of Brazil's physical exports, up from less than 20 percent five years earlier.

       As expected, Chinese companies are also involved in the oil exploration in Brazil. The consortium which won the right to explore Brazil's largest pre-salt oil camp, Libra, has two Chinese companies -- CNOOC and CNPC, along with Total, Shell and Brazil's own state-controlled oil giant Petrobras. Some 23 Chinese companies are all over Brazil.

       Does Brazil rely on China? I think this is no brainer. Brazil and China are members of an economic organization called BRICS, also consisting of Russia, India, and South Africa. πŸ‡§πŸ‡·πŸ‡§πŸ‡·πŸ‡§πŸ‡·




MAJOR reasons for the United States’ less aggressive business investing in Brazil: High-profile amounts of corruption, crime and social inequality. Add cumbersome and complex taxation, bureaucratic delays, and rigid labor legislation. Even so, American FDIs are still funneled through manufacturing, finance and insurance, and mining.

       However, the complexity of Washington’s relationship with Brasilia always points to politics—because the U.S. is more concerned with its geopolitical persona from the latter part of the 20th century towards 21st century, as China and Russia moved to put ideological fire in the backburner over economic diversification and trade expansionism.

       Today’s political classes in South/Latin America are still scarred by the history of U.S. interventions, often involving the overthrow of democratically elected governments such as Salvador Allende in Chile and JoΓ£o Goulart in Brazil during the Cold War.

       Even among supposedly cordial partners in democracy, Washington’s record as a dependable, trustworthy power has been cast in the dark because of its history of betraying and abandoning its former allies in favor of policing based on what the U.S. believes as just, reasonable, and humane.

       Latin America’s largely snub of President Biden’s call for sanction against Russia on account of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine—is an example of the weakening of America’s clout in the region. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro declined to condemn Putin and said Brazil would remain neutral.

       Mr Bolsonaro added that he was against any sanctions that could bring negative repercussions for Brazil, citing Russian fertilizers which are crucial for the country's giant agribusiness sector. And, of course, Latin America—including Brazil—is a huge buyer of Russian military equipment. But that’d be another subject to discuss. πŸ‡§πŸ‡·πŸ‡§πŸ‡·πŸ‡§πŸ‡·

Wednesday, January 1, 2025

WHAT'S UP? Joe's Exit, Donald's Entry.

From my chat with friends on Facebook.


PRESIDENT Biden and his loyal hawks are obviously escalating the war before Donald Trump sits. We don't know what the incoming POTUS will do because he is future tense, incoming. What is clear though is Joe intends to leave Donald a huge-ass mess or heightened fighting so his (T) campaign pledge to end this war faces huge roadblocks, probably prompting Congress to vote to keep military aid to Kyiv alive and active. 



      (A GOP majority Senate and House doesn't mean anti-war, regardless of Mr Trump or Elon/Vivek's advice to save taxpayer money for something else, such as purchase of more silicon from China, improvement of border security, and upgrade of FEMA funding).     

       Donald Trump's game is, as expected, unpredictable. In April 2017, he dropped MOABs in Afghanistan and Syria yet he u-turned or issued a dovish variation next. He built his trade leverage that way then carried on. Meanwhile, Russia clearly wants to end this war as it now affects its economy per military expenses mostly (irrelevant of BRICS bros China and India buying Gazprom's stuff). 

       Vladimir Putin already talked with Germany's Olaf Scholz right after November 5. The no brainer: Get Nord Stream 2 pipeline operating? Also, the EU needs to get its economy alive from 0.4 percent pace. But Vlad can't be bullied, not by hawkish lord Joe, so he responds to Mr Biden's new aggro military moves. 

       But even if a semblance of peace takes place in Ukraine as Donald sits, hawks are now instigating new tempests in Georgia. Same with the Middle East situation. New shakin’ and rattlin’ ensue each time some calm seems to find some moments. 



       Top Trump aide Elon Musk talked with Iran's new moderate leadership to pull back from responding to Israel, arms tete a tete. Not good. Tehran hasn't recovered yet since pandemic or before pandemic due to sanctions; even after sanctions, the country is in economic agony.

       (China is Iran's top energy buyer. Elon apparently wants China's "good boy!" love so they more Mr Musk pacifies the Iranians, good. China isn't high on war.) πŸ›πŸ—½πŸ›


MENA wants to lessen or totally eradicate the "arms for oil" bilateral deal thingy with Washington and Brussels due to the obvious. Especially after the 2010's Arab Spring, the region wants lesser Western encroachment. And they are already rich. They just wanna do business and have some Western-styled fun as well.

       Meanwhile, China sank huge-ass FDIs in MENA as Egypt, UAE and Iran join BRICS. Trade is Trump's ball game. He has better chat lines to the Kremlin and MBS or Riyadh, de facto boss of the Arab League. But then here comes the hawks in Syria. 

       Makes me think. What power is actually behind Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and "Syrian rebels," especially after they took out the Quds' chief Qasem Soleimani in 2020. Arms for oil gotta live? But then I refuse to ride the hate bandwagon versus Donald Trump. He isn't a god who could stop wars but his playbook is contrary to what Joe Biden implemented. I'd rather see what's up ahead with that than "predict" per anti-T subjectivity. πŸ›πŸ—½πŸ›